In 2020, Ukraine will reduce the real income of almost 14%, while the increase in the minimum wage next year will barely cover inflation.
As the Wave passes, it writes the Columnist.
What awaits Ukrainians working and how to change the level of income of inhabitants of the country?
So, in 2020, the minimum wage will not be increased. It is like it is now until the end of the year will be 4 723 UAH. According to the consensus forecast MRET, in 2021, the minimum salary can increase up to 5 134 UAH. However, it is noted that this news is not good, because in January of the current year grew by 13%, and in the following may be just at the level of 8.7%.
Thus, in 2020 the actual size (adjusted for inflation) average wage will fall by 13.9 per cent to 11 079 UAH. In 2021, the growth in real wages is expected at the level of 3.2% (12 408 UAH).
Analyst Yegor com with these estimates agrees — the average salary can be at the level of 11 thousand UAH, but the real incomes of the majority of Ukrainians will be reduced. “I think that inflation could be at 10%. Since some years, we watched as the estimates in the budget, the forecasts of the NBU, did not correspond to the actual level of price growth. But even if we assume that inflation would be at 7-8%, some people do have temporarily lost income and of course we will not see the statistics of wages. Reduced the number of vacancies, increasing unemployment. Now employer need not offer the salary which will bring to him the officer, choosing between them and a competitor. Come to any salary”.
Also stresses that because of the quarantine imposed in connection with the spread of the coronavirus, over 2 million Ukrainians were left without work. Besides, five million workers were sent on forced leave. It is noted that this will lead to the fact that the mid 2020 real wages fall to a record low.
What will happen to the labour market and workers?
According to the forecast of MRET, the situation on the labour market will remain difficult until the end of 2020. It is noted that at this time will result in an increase of unemployment due to massive layoffs and the return of migrants to Ukraine. In addition, the unemployment rate for the year will be the highest among the proposed variants. Also there will be a redistribution of labour between the spheres of activity, the completion of quarantine of the labor migrants leave Ukraine.
The assumption States that probably within a few years the majority of workers who came to Ukraine in March, decides to return to work abroad. At the same time, it is also possible that outside of Ukraine will go to work again less than half of the workers. While it is likely that the EU will substantially reduce manpower from abroad for a long period.
Thus, according to the most optimistic forecasts, the number of unemployed Ukrainians will increase to 500 thousand people. This assessment was voiced by former Minister of economic development Tymofiy mylovanov. He also assessed the situation in other countries, suggesting that a similar scenario awaits us.
In turn, the official website of the ILO stated that the International labour organization developed three scenarios for the development of the situation. Thus, the growth of unemployment in the world can range from 5.3 million (the”soft” option) to 24.7 million (the”hard” option). For the original indicator 188 million – as unemployed, there were in the world in 2019. If you compare with the global financial crisis of 2008-2009, he was left without work 22 million people.