Unheard of since 2011: drastic drop in real estate transactions in Quebec

Unheard of since 2011: drastic drop in real estate transactions in Quebec

UPGRADE DAY

We knew that real estate activity was slowing down. We now know that it has reached its lowest level in ten years. 

According to the most recent data available, the territory of the island of Montreal experienced a 59% drop in the number of residential transactions compared to October 2021. In September, residential sales were down only 41%.

“Since 2011, I have never seen such a thing , argues Daniel Langlois, co-founder of the iTerram platform, which specializes in the analysis of land and commercial data in Quebec.

Only 1,377 residences were sold in October on the island of Montreal. In October 2021, when we already felt the approach of a slowdown, residential activity (all types combined) had resulted in 2,192 transactions, or 59% more than last month.

< p>The financial insecurity of households, the fear of a recession, inflationary pressures on goods and services and successive increases in the key rate could explain, according to Mr. Langlois, the observed phenomenon.

The Outaouais and the crowns

This phenomenon is found almost everywhere in the province. The Outaouais, for example, posted a 55% drop in the number of transactions in October compared to the previous year.

In Laval and Montérégie, which includes Longueuil, we are talking about a 51% drop, in Estrie, a 47% drop, and in the Capitale-Nationale region, 23%. For the entire territory of Quebec, we are talking about a drop of 38% in October, or 27% when we take into account the first ten months of the year.

Unheard of since 2011: drastic drop in real estate transactions in Quebec

Unheard of since 2011: drastic drop in real estate transactions in Quebec< /p>

Difficult, in these circumstances, to imagine the slightest sign of improvement in the short term, recognizes the CEO of iTerram. Even that, based on his thirty years of experience in the field, he believes that the downward trend is likely to continue.

“The Fed raised its key rate again yesterday. Everyone expects the Bank of Canada to follow suit… What do you do when rates are too high? Normally, you do not borrow and you do not buy. This is what we are currently witnessing.”

A historic low

The Professional Association of Quebec Real Estate Brokers (APCIQ), which brings together brokers in most regions of the province, seem to read it the same way.

According to the data it has just released, if we take into account only Centris statistics for the census metropolitan area of ​​​​Montreal (CMA), the number of transactions decreased in October by 35% compared to October 2021, and 43% if only the island of Montreal is taken into account.

“The fall in sales worsened in October, observes Charles Brant, director of the Service de l'analyse du market at the APCIQ. Moreover, he continues, the Centris system had never recorded such a low level of transactions at this usually active time of the year, since 2000.”

For the province as a whole, the number of transactions fell 29% last month compared to the same period in 2021. Plexes (-39%) and condominiums (-37%) were the hardest hit by this decline.

Quebec City spared

The Quebec City CMA seems to have been spared the abrupt drops in activity recorded elsewhere. In October, it faced a decline in transactions of 17% compared to October 2021, a much smaller drop than for the provincial average.

In this region, estimates Charles Brant, the market is mainly stimulated – especially in the premium segment – ​​by a mass of experienced buyers. The lower level of property prices in relation to the financial capacity of households would also be a factor. 

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