Fundamental factors to strengthen the national currency, unfortunately, no. The Ukrainian model of economy as was raw, so raw, and left.
About it in the comments of ГолосUA said economist Viktor Skarshevsky.
According to him, recently the national Bank has published a rather remarkable data on the trade deficit for the year 2019 minus 13.9 billion dollars.
“I mean, we’re nearly 14 billion dollars will buy more goods than they sell. This is not an absolute record, as it was in 2012-13, but in relation to 2015, the trade deficit increased in 4 times – from minus 3.5 to minus 13.9 billion dollars”, — stated the expert.
The deficit is covered by, he said, funds that transferred workers, as well as through new debt,
“For example, last year, if you take a net inflow from non-residents in government bonds is $ 4.3 billion. For comparison, according to the NBU, the income from migrant workers amount to 12 billion dollars”, — said Viktor Skarshevsky.
According to the expert, in this situation, there are following risks: interest of non-residents to Ukrainian government bonds is gradually cooled due to the lower interest rates. The second point is the deterioration in the global economy and the so-called “black Swan”, which is a coronavirus.
“Not so terrible in itself coronavirus, as a reaction of the governments and economies of China and other countries on it. We have seen subsidence of the exchanges as well as lower prices for metal, ore and grain on the world markets. products industry from the beginning of the year fell by 7%, Geoana ore — by 11%. Already there are signs of decline in grain prices,” — said Viktor Skarshevsky.
The expert stated that in this situation Ukraine has two losses. First — video. Given that in our country commodity model of economy, because of lower world prices for raw materials, we have reduced foreign exchange revenue that will put pressure on the hryvnia. The second factor, which may adversely affect the dynamics of course, is that when the world economy and Finance proishodit turbulence, non-residents and speculators try to maximize quickly and fully to withdraw money from emerging markets, which is the Ukraine.
“And there are already signs of withdrawal on the world, in Ukraine, there is also excitement on the part of non-residents for the purchase of government bonds. If, however, the situation is even worse, at least the non-residents will cease to make new money, which in itself will have a negative impact on the course. If on this background, they will start a and withdraw funds, it will further strengthen devaluation processes,” summed up Viktor Skarshevsky.