The value of foreign currencies continues to decline, although at a slower rate. Since the beginning of the week the dollar fell by 3 kopecks, and the Euro — 6 cents. Since 18 December, the NBU set the official exchange rate at the level of 23.47 UAH per USD and UAH per Euro 26,20. Courses fall and in the cash currency market. In exchange the U.S. you can take the average of 23.27 UAH, buy — in of 23.50 UAH, EUR to UAH pass of 25.83, buy — in of 26.21 UAH.
“The hryvnia exchange rate on Wednesday has reached 23,43 UAH per dollar — said “FACTS” head of Department of Analytics Forex Club Andrey Shevchishin. — Such dynamics is observed on the background of statements of the NBU that the country’s banking system shows resilience to potential threats to financial stability, as well as the results of placement of bonds of internal state loan (government bonds) the day before.
According to representatives of the financial regulator, the Ukrainian banking system this year worked very profitable due to the fact that the formation of reserves was the lowest for the last 10 years, and also due to significant revenue growth.
In turn, the Ministry of Finance on the eve attracted 11.4 billion UAH to the budget, placing a two-year and three-year hryvnia government bonds worth UAH 5.1 billion under the lower rate of 11.1% per annum. Also, the Finance Ministry has placed Eurobonds on 198 million euros at a record of 2.22%. These data confirm the high demand for Ukrainian debt securities and the willingness of investors to invest in Ukraine.
Probably in the near future, the hryvnia will remain stable and will continue to move at the level of 23,5 USD per dollar. At the same time, we expect increasing activity of the NBU to redeem excess currency supply, which will also influence the strengthening of the hryvnia” — said the Shevchishin.
However, there are predictions that the dollar will fall even lower.
“For a week the dollar against the hryvnia has declined markedly in all segments of the foreign exchange market by 0.7−1%, — told the “FACTS” a senior analyst “Alpari” Vadim Iosub. — So, last Wednesday, the official rate of dollar established by the NBU, decreased from 23.69 to 23.47 UAH (-0,9%). Courses supply and demand of the dollar on the interbank market, according to the company “Ukrdealing”, for the same period fell from 23.61—23,65 to 23.45—of 23.47 UAH (-0,7% — -0,8%). The average buying and selling rate of cash dollar in banks for the week decreased from 23.53 from 23.76 to 23.30 UAH—UAH in 23.52 (-1%). The difference between the average rates of sale and purchase remained at the level of 1%.
During a meeting with government representatives, members of the Board of the National Bank of Ukraine once again explained that the strong exchange rate of hryvnia at the same time generates savings in terms of expenditures in foreign currency borrowings and maintain foreign currency debt and on government procurement of imported products. In addition, a strong hryvnia lower the cost of energy and reducing the rate of labor migration.
In the coming weeks, we expect the depreciation of the dollar against the hryvnia. The dollar on the interbank market may be trading close to 23.3 UAH and the cash dollar in banks — 23,1−23,3 UAH”, — predicts Iosub.
Their views on the current monetary situation in Ukraine was expressed in international financial institutions.
“The interest of foreigners to purchase government bonds of Ukraine to 2019 due to high interest rates and stabilization of macroeconomic situation, — said in an interview with RBC-Ukraine economist at the world Bank Anastasia Golovach. — Since the beginning of the year in the domestic bond market it’s over $ 4 billion. Foreigners see that the macroeconomic situation in Ukraine stabilized, but interest rates on securities remain still high. Therefore, Ukrainian government bonds they consider a good investment.
This situation allowed the Ministry of Finance to solve the problem of refinancing debt to reduce borrowing costs. In turn, the national Bank managed to replenish its reserves. But portfolio investment is not enough. This money does not contribute to the real sector, as it does not create jobs, contribute to the growth of the economy. For its conservation it is necessary to significantly increase the rate of growth of investment in fixed capital,” concluded Anastasia Golovach.
It is worth Recalling that, according to previously published forecast, the world Bank expects the slowdown of the Ukrainian economy in the fourth quarter of 2019 and in 2020.
Meanwhile, the question remains unresolved with the resumption of crediting of Ukraine International monetary Fund.
“Ukraine is required to adopt a law prohibiting the return to the market of insolvent banks due to the fact that the last time the national Bank served in the courts the owners of bankrupt financial institutions, — said the Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Yakov Smoliy. — The most famous trial — with the former owners of “PrivatBank”. The new law will include a ban on the return of the Bank Igor Kolomoisky. So I think that the Board of Directors of the IMF is unlikely to approve a new loan program with Ukraine until the end of 2019. The decision will be made during the first quarter of 2020″.
However, the NBU already preparing for a negative development of the events surrounding the nationalization of “PrivatBank”. Recall that on December 19 the appeal against the decision of District administrative court, which recognized illegal the decision about the insolvency of “PrivatBank” and its nationalization.
“If you start to cancel nationalization, it would mean a bilateral restitution, i.e. the difference between all the other actions that were taken after the nationalization, including the capitalization of the Bank, whereby the Bank will lose capital and is recognized as insolvent, — said Deputy Chairman of the National Bank of Ukraine Ekaterina Rozhkova. — The next steps we will coordinate with the government.
We do not make any predictions about the court’s decision, but in the case of a negative decision retain financial stability. It will be a little difficult, it will be a negative signal to investors … and this will complicate our work in principle, but will not destroy the financial stability and the cooperation with the IMF.
Ukraine’s international partners, particularly the IMF, understand that the judicial branch is independent and influence neither the government nor the Bank can not. At the same time there is insist that the state did the maximum to preserve financial stability and the return derived from “PrivatBank” funds of depositors,” — said Rozhkov.
It should be noted that, according to some experts, the dollar in 2020 could be reduced to the level of UAH 21 to the dollar. As noted by an analyst “Investment group UNIVER” Mikhail Fedorov, an important factor for strengthening the hryvnia is increasing the foreign currency inflow from migrant workers.