When world air travel will recover from the crisis COVID-19: forecast of IATA

According to the forecast of international passenger transport in 2020 will fall by 55% compared to the year 2019. That provokes these trends, and what measures should be taken to improve the situation, the newspaper writes CNN.

Когда мировые авиаперевозки восстановятся от кризиса COVID-19: прогноз IATA

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World air freight will not recover from the crisis COVID-19 until 2024. This was stated on Tuesday, 28 July, the International air transport Association (IATA).

According to the previous forecast of the world transportation would have to recover until 2023.

The body representing 290 airlines, blamed a slow economic recovery, a number of factors, including lack of trust from consumers, the decline in business travel and new outbreaks of the disease in the U.S. and other countries.

The revised baseline forecast is that international passenger traffic will fall by 55% in 2020 compared to the year 2019. In April, IATA had predicted a drop of only 46%.

It is expected that next year the number of passengers will grow by 62%, but will still fall by nearly 30% compared to the period prior to the start of a pandemic. Full recovery to prepandemic level will occur only after four years.

“Passenger traffic hit bottom in April, but the lift power was very weak, — said Alexander de Juniac (Alexandre de Juniac), Director General and CEO of IATA. — Some improvement we observed in domestic flights”.

It is expected that travel for short distances will recover faster than the long. Such a prediction is made, in particular, on the basis that international markets remain mostly closed.

“Consumer confidence has fallen, and he did not help Britain’s decision to impose a full quarantine for all travelers returning from Spain,” said de Juniac.

We will remind that on 25 July the British government took an unexpected decision – to introduce a 14-day quarantine for all travelers arriving from the popular tourist destinations. This decision was made amid growing number of cases of the coronavirus in the country.

Many Britons left on vacation shortly after school closed for the summer. So, they learned with amazement that, on return they are waiting for a two-week quarantine. The Minister of foreign Affairs of the UK Dominic Raab (Dominic Raab) said in Sky News that “made the decision as quickly as we could, and we can’t apologize for it.”

For domestic traffic, the recovery process currently headed by Chinese airlines: in June traffic fell by 35.5% in comparison with the period of 2019, an increase compared to the may decline of 46.3%.

IATA say that scientific advances in the fight against the coronavirus, including the development of a successful vaccine, can afford to speed up the recovery. But now the future looks grim. “In many parts of the world the number of infections is still increasing,’ said de Juniac from IATA. — All this points to a longer recovery period and even greater losses for the industry and the world economy”.

In circumstances when airlines are experiencing financial difficulties, governments need to continue to take measures to provide help to stop the decline of the airline, said the airline representative. “Summer is the busiest season in our industry quickly,” said de Juniac. In his opinion, “the prospects for growth in international air travel are few, if governments do not take swift and decisive action to find alternatives to closing borders, destroying trust, and quarantine, killing demand.”

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