Quarantine of coronavirus in Ukraine began only recently, but many are already thinking how to survive in the conditions of rigid restrictions and bans. The Deputy Minister of health Viktor Lyashko explained that the timing of the quarantine can extend with increasing number of patients. However, the experts — the President of the Ukrainian analytical center Oleksandr Okhrimenko and member of the Economic discussion club Oleg Pendzin – are already predicting an extension of the quarantine for at least another month, and then all spring and summer.
It is reported Today.
Who will lose more in earnings because of the quarantine, and who, on the contrary, thanks to the coronavirus to improve their financial situation.
And if food service there are still chances to survive, arranging delivery of orders to the house, establishments”, of the socio-cultural life,” as they were called once, the income will be zero. However, their owners should pay the rent and utility costs, especially heating, which is not disabled.
Cancelled almost all passenger transport, excluding urban and suburban. In Kiev, Kharkov and Dnipro, the metro is closed. In the bus you can ride for 10 people, trams, trolleybuses and buses — 20.
From the above it is clear which categories of workers were at risk:
Part-time employees hope to stay chefs as restaurateurs already said they were going to take to go orders. This primarily applies to fast food;
No work will be: waiters, cosmetologists, bath attendants, masseurs, beauticians, sports coaches and so on, until administrators, cleaners and cloakroom;
Will not work the drivers of intercity buses, passenger trains, pilots and stewards;
Lose the earnings of workers in the tourist and hotel business, since it is obvious that tourists will not;
No work from private dealers at markets and their distributors.
According to Alexander Okhrimenko, can earn quarantined:
suppliers and traders of products;
currency speculators, who already have inflated the rate of cash dollar to almost 30 UAH per dollar;
the pharmacy network;
taxi drivers, because in connection with the closing of the metro in Kiev, Kharkov and the Dnieper, and limiting the amount of passengers in public transport (not more than 20-25% of capacity) their services will certainly be sought after;
staff services for the delivery of products, where the service is distributed;
doctors and medsestry directly involved in the elimination of coronavirus disease;
the guards, at least where there is no alarm system installed. Since a non-working offices and facilities will still require round-the-clock monitoring;
pensioners, as the authorities promise not only to pay pensions on time, despite the quarantine, but even the promise to all who have pensions less than 5000 hryvnia, to give a lump sum of 1000 hryvnias for improvement. According to the Pension Fund and according to experts, these pensioners about 10 million people, or almost 90% of the total number;
retain the income from those who work in industry, agriculture, cargo transportation, construction and other industries of the real sector of the economy and in government officials and deputies;
do not hit the quarantine peasants, living off his garden and the infield.
Both experts say that because of the quarantine Ukraine will lose 2-5% of their GDP. And to a large extent, these losses depend on how long will the quarantine in Europe.
And Oleg Pendzin added that the country’s GDP will fall primarily because significantly reduced the volume of retail trade.
Experts fear that there will be a surge in inflation to 15% per year or more due to the weakening of the hryvnia in Ukraine. But they hope that the loss of the country will be the lowest possible, thanks to stringent measures to combat coronavirus will give a quick result.