Why coronavirus is not the beginning of the Apocalypse: soothing statistics

Daily updated data by 2019 coronavirus-nCoV can get to worry even the most cold-blooded skeptics. Hundreds of thousands of people infected, more than 11 thousand victims, and all this against the backdrop of uncertainty due to the global quarantine and the decline of the economy.

Почему коронавирус не начало апокалипсиса: успокаивающая статистика

Photo: Shutterstock

Fear has big eyes, and many see a new virus almost the end of the world — a threat that could destroy humanity. But, really, it’s not. Yes, the virus is contagious, but not more contagious than many other known medical still; Yes, it spreads fast, but we have decades of living in a world where other dangerous viruses spread much more, and we are able to deal with it.

If we superimpose the coronavirus at the global scale, you get the picture, which is able to reduce panic and fear to get infected. Moreover, we should not forget that the infection is still not a sentence. 80% infected with a disease suffer Covid-19 in the form of light without the need for hospitalization, and a significant portion of hospitalized recovering after the necessary medical procedures for the body, especially its respiratory function.

Given the proliferation of 2019 coronavirus-nCoV March 20 (information from the website Worldometers), as well as the population of the most affected countries (according to the calculations Countrymeters), it is easy to see that none of the state level of infection is close to a half percent of the total number of residents, remaining well below even a tenth of 1% of the population.

This suggests that in some countries the chance of winning the lottery is higher than to catch the coronavirus. And in the US the probability of contamination only slightly higher risk of homicide, which does not seem to us so high.

Почему коронавирус не начало апокалипсиса: успокаивающая статистика

Infographics: ForumDaily

The situation with other viruses

If to compare these figures with the prevalence of other viruses in the world, they are much lower, and even though the number of people infected with coronavirus on the planet continues to grow to levels of other viral diseases him away. And preventive measures and quarantine are yielding results, and if they stick, then the flash will be able to slow down and eventually stop. In addition, a portion of the previously infected have recovered.

HIV

For example, according to UNAIDS (in 2018), there are approximately 37,9 million people living with HIV-positive status or AIDS.

Given that the Earth’s population is 7 784 015 440 people, of 37.9 million — it is 0,487% (that is 487 people per 100 thousand population).

In the United States with PITCHFORK live about 1.2 million people, according to the website of the office of disease prevention and health promotion. They constitute 0.36 percent of the population. Thus, according to experts of Management, 1 of the 8 infected in the U.S. do not know their status.

Tuberculosis

According to the world health organization, every year of tuberculosis about 10 million people in the world, despite the availability and widespread use of the vaccine. Statistics about the total number of people with TB in the world are hard to find, but even if you take the annual rate of infection, then the disease each year diagnosed 0,128% of the population. In the United States this figure is much lower because of effective treatment and preventive measures. In 2018, the country was found 9 025 new cases of tuberculosis, it 0,0027% of the population.

Flu

Influenza annually in the world suffer about one billion people, this is where some 14% of the world population. In the USA the annual number of cases is from 9 to 45 million, says the CDC. This 2.7 — 13.5% of the total population.

Contagious

The average level of infectiousness of these diseases also suggests that panic because coronavirus is exaggerated, because we are already faced with more contagious and less dangerous virus, which is still struggling, but without excessive restrictions and panic:

  • COVID-19: on average 1 person can infect 2 to 3.11 persons.
  • Seasonal flu: one patient can infect up to 1.3 people.
  • HIV: one person with HIV can infect up 3.6-3.7 people.

The TB is highly dependent on country and conditions, in addition, carriers of latent TB are tens of millions of people on the planet who picked up the wand, but the disease has not developed, so the average infectiousness here don’t compute.

Mortality

As for the level of mortality of these diseases, then Covid-19 while there is no precise data, since the epidemic is still evolving. Scientists call a digit from 1 to 3.5%. The flu this average is 0.1%, but taking into account the prevalence of the disease this translates to frightening figures:

  • every year from influenza in the world dies 290 000 — 650 000 people;
  • the mortality rate in the U.S. is 12 000 – 61 000 deaths per year.

Tuberculosis is among the top 10 causes of death in the world, ranking first in deaths from infectious diseases. Every year it kills about 1.5 million people. The average death rate from tuberculosis is estimated at 7-35% depending on the country.

With HIV it’s a little complicated because it as such does not cause death. According to estimates by UNAIDS, in 2018 from HIV-related diseases in the world died from 570 000 to 1.1 million people. This is a huge number. But the mortality rate from HIV-related diseases decreased by 33% compared to 2010. Humanity gradually takes control of a dangerous virus, from which there is no vaccine, and it is encouraging.

Based on these data and the extensive preventive measures taken by each of the affected countries due 2019 coronavirus-nCoV, there is reason to believe that mankind faced a new and dangerous virus, but, like all previous ones, we will be able to get it under control and back to normal life. Important thing now is to support governments, without violating the conditions of quarantine and taking reasonable measures to protect their health.

The latest information on the new coronavirus, protection from infection and methods of treatment Covid-19 read our special link.

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